Thursday, February 03, 2022

Russia v NATO: Historical Stalemate becomes Current Threat

 

 

 

 

 

As the very public figure of the historical Russia, Present resident President Vladimir Putin has challenged expansion of NATO towards his country. As a lone operator in the East, east of Europe, and farther east than any allies, though these are solely the former Soviet Union states that broke away when the USSR broke up in the early 90's, Putin and Russia see themselves as being surrounded and threatened by NATO in contrast to a perceived promise made back in the 90's when the US' SecState James Baker and Russia's premeir Mikhail Gorbachev were meeting and negotiating terms. 

 

 

 

 

Probably the most important facet of these negotiations was the fate of Germany who'd been split into East and West after WW2, both geographically and ideologically and was now reunifying after the collapse of the USSR who had been propping up East Germany. 

 

 

 

 

Ever the paranoid statesman,("It's not paranoid if they really are about to invade"),  Putin continues to use the threat of the eastward expansion of NATO to warn that it's security was being stripped and no buffer would protect Russia from a closely supported invasion from NATO forces.

 

 

 

 

In 1997 there was another agreement, although it was signed by Yeltsin it allowed NATO to expand to countries Russia once considered under it's security purview. Putin and other leaders from Russia have criticized it as allowing military hardware "at our borders".  

 

 

 

 

During a Russia/US summit in Helsinki in 1997, Yeltsin agreed to receive "sort of a bribe" ($4B USD) to allow NATO to expand as it sees fit, but to have it's nonbinding opinion heard at the negotiating table. Clearly agreeing to receive the "sort of a bribe", now Boris Yeltsin had negotiated away any opposition Russia might be lawfully awarded in the future regarding NATO expansion.

 

 

 

 

2014 Putin directed Russian forces to seize the Crimean peninsula and Russia annexed the former Ukrainian territory. It was a move everyone understood as Russia's means to maintain that buffer. Crimea was a longtime strategic asset of Moscow. Their submarine fleet was manufactured and based on the Black Sea. Bad relations with Ukraine worried Russian war planners and the surprise invasion  shored up Russia's buffer zone.  

 

 

 

 

Now Putin wants a do over of the 1997 agreements. The former Russian premiers had all been lured by the promise of payouts to cede their strategic blocs. But not Vladimir. He will, in his well known fashion, turn the tables and possibly require large USD  payouts not to invade Ukraine while being accommodated at the negotiating table with regards to which missile defense system may or may not be deployed there.  



Boris Yeltsin 

Premier of Russian Federation 1991-99






Mikhail Gorbachev 

Soviet GS Communist Party, 1985-91





Vladimir Putin
Russian President, 2012-Present
Prime Minister 1999-2012

 
-katykarter










 


 

1 comment:

Katykarter said...

Timeline 3-11-22
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has seen more than two weeks so far, with one major city falling to it's control and the capital under siege including Mariupol and Kharkiv.
Far from negotiating, Russia's armor columns and artillery are on the move to the capital Kyiv and are responsible for widespread damage to infrastructure and indiscriminate firing at population centers spawning calls of 'Warcrimes!"
NATO has characterized the war as " not our war" and has so far declined to support a no fly zone.